The storm that wasn't epic failure

parman said:
:bs:
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BS or mayge not.. Just had someone local do a rollover with a pretty new 4x4 pickup about 26 miles from town a few days ago. Had to get the jaws out there to get her and her fastened upside-down down daughter out. Another victim of black ice, higher cg, and quite likely 4x4 invincibility attitude.

Don't get me wrong, I love my big Chevy 2500HD 4x4, but it doesn't do diddly squat to keep me on the road when I'm going too fast for the conditions. This is a fact of physics that a lot of the more gung-ho types fail to realize before fate bites them..
 
4WD is great for getting OUT of the snowbank after you slide in, but if you're wheels-up in the ditch, it doesn't really matter how many of the wheels are hooked up. :cool:

I'm just shocked that 3" is a major disaster if it's not plowed. Usually takes a foot or more to turn it into a traffic mess here, but OTOH it's much less population density and traffic, probably more snow tires, etc.

Be careful out there folks. :thumbsup:
 
Having 4wd and high ground clearance are great for driving in deep snow.
Not great help on ice and as said before hcg not an ally on slippery or dry surfaces.
Used with some common sense they're a definite plus.
Unfortunately the marketing people sell them as if you can drive them in hazardous conditions as if it were dry. If only a small percentage of them buy into that, it's tragic.
To be fair there are plenty of morons driving everything else without a clue about driving in slippery conditions.
 
True enough! The slide-offs I see in my travels are a good mix of cars, crossovers, SUVs and trucks. Rubber slides on ice no matter what it's attached to.

We had a 15-incher a few years back, that's enough to paralyze everyone for a couple days in these parts. Knew it was coming so I stayed home from my 35-mi commute. It started in the morning and I had errands so I drove my 4WD Ranger around to a few stops in town. When it got bad I put on the 4WD and took it slow. Made a big difference in traction. Ended up giving some lady a ride to the grocery and back home. It was snowing hard and the sidewalks she was walking on were nonexistent. Kinda nice to be able to help someone out. Anyway the truck was great but I did not dick around with my speed.
 
Alobar said:
You know I see more 4 wheel drive pickups upside down in the ditch than anything else, just sayin :rolleyes:
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Oh yeah, we definitely see a lot of the dick-waving 4x4 drivers where I live, driving way faster than everyone else "because 4x4" and they are the ones we see in spin-outs or wrecks. I was in the middle of an 80+ car pile-up on I-696 back in the early 90s that was caused by a 4x4 pickup pulling snowmobiles who was flying past all of us. He spun out and caused a three mile pile-up. Yeah, they feel they are invincible; they forget the simple law of physics that what speeds up also has to slow down or stop. And they're higher up, so they're also easier to flip over.

I can accelerate pretty darned good in my AWD setup, especially with the traction control kicking in--it cuts through snowdrifts like butter, and it's only a mid-sized SUV. But I panic more when trying to stop, even though I'm going no faster than anyone else. ABS still can't help if someone is driving too fast to begin with. I'd rather have some huge Nerf bumpers on our cars here during winter, but alas, nobody has invented that yet...
 
parman said:
1 truck wrecked 26 miles from town...shocking
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For a alaskan town of 2000 it's a bit more than nothing . It's a trend here, people with big rigs tend to have lead feet, maybe not out in the real world however..

Hey I'm sorry if I ruffled your feathers about this.. drive safe..
 
Alobar said:
For a alaskan town of 2000 it's a bit more than nothing . It's a trend here, people with big rigs tend to have lead feet, maybe not out in the real world however..
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Sadly they are out here in my area, and very common...even on dry pavement...
 
'Storms that were not - epic failure' are very common the in NE US when a n'oreaster does get enuf nor-east action. When I lived in CT I actually pined for great whiteouts like we used to get in western PA or central pa from state college to jtown. But alas, I had the local cable and got 2 ABCs, 2 CBSs and 2 NBCs (NYC vs CT versions) and each tried to out doomsday predict each other cuz one thing the public likes more than salaciousness, is predictions of dire weather to complain (mebbe its a pent up desire to rush out and buy milk, break and butt rub from the markets the 4 hours preceding?)

But many a times I was told and guaranteed it would be a foot or more and roads closed for a year, only to wake up, above freezing, dry, overcast.
 
The weather is getting a bit more extreme sometimes and harder to predict. Heavy snow and rain storms in small areas seem to be on the rise, and where they're going to track is a moving target.

One would think that weather prediction should be so much more accurate than it was decades ago. If they still miss, with all this computing power, what does that mean? I think it must mean the equations are getting harder to solve accurately.
 
toxcrusadr said:
The weather is getting a bit more extreme sometimes and harder to predict. Heavy snow and rain storms in small areas seem to be on the rise, and where they're going to track is a moving target.

One would think that weather prediction should be so much more accurate than it was decades ago. If they still miss, with all this computing power, what does that mean? I think it must mean the equations are getting harder to solve accurately.
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At least here, in wildly changing weather patterns of mountains and fjords, the NWS probably has the hardest time predicting the precise temp, not just surface, but at 500-5000 feet to call what the P-type will be. They will predict a "winter storm warning" of 12 inches, but if the temp was just slightly warmer than it needed for snow, we get wet heavy slush followed by just rain. I can see it falling hard with bino's on the mountain my house faces but aint making it down here to sea level.

I read the "Forecast Discussion" on the NWS site often several times a week in winter. They will talk "short term forecast" (24-36 hours I think) , long term which is out to a week, and the thing to watch for is their "forecast confidence". Often the models will have a large spread, or worse have run to run inconsistencies which they then say fair to poor confidence. When the models mostly are in agreement, and the run to run comes back nearly the same they will say average or above average confidence. But the average person who just looks at the forecast won't know the reliability of the forecast unless they click on the "discussion" link which is updated every 12 hours (based on shift rotation) ..

Still all told, the models and meteorologis do a pretty amazing job most of the time these days. Compared with the old days of weather balloons and whatnot that is.
 
Alobar said:
Still all told, the models and meteorologis do a pretty amazing job most of the time these days. Compared with the old days of weather balloons and whatnot that is.
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I do give those dedicated weather boffins a lot of credit for their hard work on our behalf. :thumbsup:

Would be interesting to somehow compare forecasts from the 70s to today, in terms of accuracy at a given location. I'm not sure how you'd even do that.
 
ridiculous - I grew up the East coast my whole life - Yesterday was Nuthin!!
better get your head right before the REAL snow comes down end of Jan-Feb - THAT is Snow season round here!
Slow it down, get snow tires or chains, or -- stay home and stay off the road!

Someone should be held accountable? Really??
Get in touch with God - Snow happens!

The big problem is the "immortal" 4WDunderheads that think they can continue at 60mph or better when the road slicks up - i just hope they run off the road alone and dn'ttake me and mine with them in ther excesses!

nj pheonix said:
I live in I guess you'd call it mid western jersey. Very close to where us1 and I95 cross.
There was indeed a forecast of an early winter storm today. Prediction here expected an inch or so of snow changing to rain. We probably got 3" or so. Clearly not snowpocalypse. It doesn't seem like the powers that be made any effort whatsoever to deal with it. The port authority shutdown
A coworker spent 3hrs to make a 1 hour trip entirely on the jersey turnpike. It took me an hour to make a local 10-15 minute trip all on main roads.
Someone or parties should be held accountable. I understand different jurisdictions (interstate, state, county, local townships all maintain different things. My point is I didn't see a single piece of equipment, the roads were horrible everywhere. (Likely still are)
I just don't understand. Saving money for later in the season?
This is the northeast corridor between NY and philly. This can and SHOULD be handled.
Sorry about the rant:confused:
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toxcrusadr said:
I do give those dedicated weather boffins a lot of credit for their hard work on our behalf. :thumbsup:

Would be interesting to somehow compare forecasts from the 70s to today, in terms of accuracy at a given location. I'm not sure how you'd even do that.
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I think a lot of that accuracy back then would depend on the local terrain, water bodies, mountains or Plains etc. Some places are just a lot easier than others to predict.

Here in southeast Alaska we have some of the more bizarre weather in winter. Being on the north pacific we are always bombarded by storms from the bering sea and remnants of tropical typhoons hit us as well. Or we get a high pressure setup that blasts us down from the Arctic and stays blowing out of the north for weeks sometimes.

There can be weird phenomenon called mountain wave which can switch on suddenly to 100 mph in certain places and calm a few miles away. Pilots have reported water spouts 3000 feet high over the fjords , and lightening strikes in snowstorms.

How they ever managed to predict weather here before computer modeling is beyond me..
 
Heather,
Honestly I think you missed my point entirely.
(Oh just for reference, I've lived my entire life in the NE as well)
I understand how the weather works here and what's reasonable to expect. You are right , it was nothing, yet....)
The snow wasn't the issue. I've driven in far worse including several blizzards.
My point was for a very minor storm that was completely missed forecast, The various agencies tasked with keeping roads, clear (as safe as reasonably possible. Reasonably being the key word)
There is some reasonable expectation that they will make some effort and they clearly did not. I suspect if you experienced a minor local storm that they made no effort whatsoever to clear and it crippled the area, what I described would seem more logical.
 
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quaddriver said:
'Storms that were not - epic failure' are very common the in NE US when a n'oreaster does get enuf nor-east action. When I lived in CT I actually pined for great whiteouts like we used to get in western PA or central pa from state college to jtown. But alas, I had the local cable and got 2 ABCs, 2 CBSs and 2 NBCs (NYC vs CT versions) and each tried to out doomsday predict each other cuz one thing the public likes more than salaciousness, is predictions of dire weather to complain (mebbe its a pent up desire to rush out and buy milk, break and butt rub from the markets the 4 hours preceding?)

But many a times I was told and guaranteed it would be a foot or more and roads closed for a year, only to wake up, above freezing, dry, overcast.
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I agree with this.
I get it the other way ,2 abc, cbs, nbc (nyc and philly)
It gives them ratings.

Alobar,
I know it's pretty up there but your descriptions of the weather don't make me want to retire there:D
 
I'm with you Andy, They totally blew it. I was in Elmwood Parks right off of XT156 on the Garden State Parkway and it took me 3 hours to get back to the NJ Turnpike. Distance is roughly 26 miles. I didn't get on the Tpk because it was closed so went to Union Beach and stayed with a friend. Right past the entrance to the NJ Turnpike it turned to rain and after 5 miles it was clear sailing.
They totally blew it. And those little boxes called cars were stuck all over the place.

BillWojo
 
nj pheonix said:
I agree with this.
I get it the other way ,2 abc, cbs, nbc (nyc and philly)
It gives them ratings.

Alobar,
I know it's pretty up there but your descriptions of the weather don't make me want to retire there:D
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Well it helps that I retired here from Fairbanks, arguably the coldest city in North America, so it's not so bad!

Funny you mention retirement, this little town is a retirement community, but quite a few are snowbirds too although I usually stay and feed the wood to the stove all winter.

One thing about cold, it tends to weed out the population! :biggrin:
 
Somebody has to feed those woodstoves or they would all go extinct! In Canada the coldest city is Winnipeg Manitoba aka winterpeg!My garage woody had a nice lunch of maple today !
 
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