I can't recall a time when abiding by the rules has ever landed one in hot water....
Had the game balls been within inflation standards per NFL rules, this conversation would NOT exist.
It is not known, and may never be known, if rules were broken. But there was perceived risk of the league's reputation being broken. And when given a decision between a scar on the NFL's reputation and a scar on the Patriots' reputation, the choice was quite easy for the league.
I believe it will get knocked down to 2 games or less after appeal.
Until this started I never realized each team used their own footballs. I always thought the league provided them. The NFL/referees are as much to blame.